We have the first 16-game slate in NHL history ahead of us Tuesday night. Let’s waste no time getting to a handful of my favorite props on the board.
William Nylander over 3.5 shots
The Capitals have bled shots over their first few games of the season. Only the Sharks, who should contend for last place in the NHL, have allowed shots at a higher clip during five-on-five play.
To make matters worse, Washington also takes a ton of penalties. The Capitals are averaging nearly eight minutes per game on the penalty kill, leaving plenty of opportunities for opponents to generate shots in bulk.
All of this should be music to Nylander’s ears. He’s attempted 40 shots through five games – good for a healthy average of eight per contest – and is one attempt behind Auston Matthews for the team lead at full strength. Nylander is also one of the focal points on the man advantage, meaning he’s in a prime position to exploit the Capitals’ inability to stay out of the box.
This is a great matchup for Nylander at five-on-five and on the power play. Look for him to stay hot and take advantage.
Odds: -118 (playable to -130)
Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots
The Blues aren’t a good defensive team on paper, and that’s translated to the ice. Only three clubs have allowed five-on-five shots at a higher rate than the Blues.
St. Louis has struggled most with left-wingers, ranking dead last in shots allowed per game to the position.
It just so happens that the Jets’ leader in shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, and expected goals is a left-winger.
Connor is averaging 4.6 shots on 8.2 attempts per game this season. He’s also much more effective at home than on the road, as his hit rate in Winnipeg was 22% higher a season ago.
Connor should be in for a ceiling performance against this underwhelming Blues team.
Odds: -105 (playable to -125)
Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots
Forsberg is on another level right now. He’s generated 29 shots on goal and 56 attempts through six games. That’s Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak territory when it comes to shot creation.
The market has yet to adjust as Forsberg’s shot line remains at 3.5 each night.
Forsberg has hit in five of six games and finds himself in a great spot Tuesday to continue his shooting success.
The Canucks rank in the bottom 10 in shots against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and their penalty-killing metrics are abysmal. Forsberg is the Predators’ leading shooter at even strength, and getting him the puck in shooting position is priority No. 1 for the power play.
Forsberg should test Thatcher Demko often in this one and go over the number with room to spare.
Odds: -118 (playable to -135)
Timo Meier over 0.5 points
We backed Meier for a point last time out, and he cashed us out with a primary assist in the first period. I see plenty of reason to return to him against the Canadiens.
First and foremost, Meier remains on the top line with the Devils’ best player. Jack Hughes has piled up 10 points through four games and has looked unstoppable.
Riding shotgun with Hughes will provide a ton of opportunities for Meier, who’s more than capable of taking advantage. He’s averaged more than 70 points per season over the last couple of years.
Meier also gets to square off against the lesser of Montreal’s goalies. Jake Allen stole the show in Buffalo on Monday, which means the Devils will see Sam Montembeault.
He’s coming off a rough preseason in which he allowed nine goals on just 58 shots faced (.845 save percentage).
Not very often do you get an elite offensive winger playing alongside a Hart Trophy candidate at anywhere close to this price, especially against one of the league’s worst teams. There’s immense value here.
Odds: -120 (playable to -170)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.